In Sabah, political allegiances shift fast. New parties emerge, alliances form and dissolve, and leaders frequently switch camps.

As the next state election draws nearer, the growing number of parties expressing interest in contesting reflects this ever-fluid political climate.

Sabah’s 2020 state election was a crowded affair, with multiple national and local parties vying for the 73 seats in the State Legislative Assembly.

National parties, including UMNO and BERSATU, struggled to maintain dominance. In the end, local parties edged ahead, securing 37 seats (51%) compared to the 33 seats (45%) won by national parties.

Three seats went to independent candidates.

These numbers paint a clear picture: national parties, once dominant in Sabah, no longer hold the influence they once did. Instead, Sabahans have increasingly thrown their support behind state-based parties, reflecting a growing preference for homegrown leadership over decisions made in Kuala Lumpur.

The political shake-up since 2020

Since that election, Sabah’s political landscape has seen major shifts. Several new parties have been formed, while existing ones have undergone internal upheaval. Among the key developments:

• January 2022: Peter Anthony, a former WARISAN leader, founded Social Democratic Harmony Party (KDM) after disagreements with his former party. KDM initially aligned itself with Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), a coalition led by Chief Minister Hajiji Noor.

• December 2022: Hajiji and his allies resigned from BERSATU, marking a significant departure from national party influence. To fill the gap, direct membership into GRS was introduced.

• February 2023: Hajiji revived Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (GAGASAN) and took over its leadership, further consolidating his power under a locally driven political platform.

• December 2023: Entrepreneur Michel Alok launched Parti Impian Sabah, positioning it as a fresh alternative for Sabahans dissatisfied with the current political landscape.

• January 2025: Perikatan Nasional (PN) announced plans to contest 18 seats, a move that political analysts have called overly ambitious, given the state’s fragmented voter base.

These developments illustrate a common theme—Sabah politicians are increasingly gravitating toward state-based entities, often breaking away from national party structures in search of greater autonomy.

A renewed push by national parties

Despite past setbacks, national parties are making another attempt to gain a foothold in Sabah. UMNO, though weakened, remains in the game, and Pakatan Harapan (PH) parties such as DAP and PKR will likely seek to hold onto their existing seats.

PN’s recent announcement signals its intent to expand in the state, but its strategy remains unclear. The coalition lacks strong grassroots support in Sabah, and its ability to make a meaningful impact will depend on potential alliances formed closer to the election.

Political analysts anticipate last-minute electoral pacts—a hallmark of Sabah politics. With shifting loyalties and the need for tactical coalitions, Sabah’s elections are rarely straightforward.

What 2020’s election results tell us

The breakdown of the 2020 election offers insight into the evolving power struggle:

• Local parties: 37 seats (51%)

• National parties: 33 seats (45%)

• Independents: 3 seats (4%)

While national parties still held a presence, their decline was evident. Sabah’s preference for local political representation has only grown in the years since.

What to expect in 2025

The upcoming election will test whether national parties can regain lost ground or if the shift toward local leadership will continue. With new parties in the mix and political allegiances still fluid, the contest is set to be unpredictable.

But one thing is certain: in Sabah, political survival depends on adaptability—and this election will be no exception. – January 30, 2025