In Sabah’s 2020 state election, Warisan Plus won the most votes, but GRS walked away with power.
Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal’s Warisan Plus coalition bagged 43.42% of the vote, just edging out GRS at 43.22%. Yet, GRS took the lead where it mattered—winning 38 seats against Warisan Plus’s 32.
Warisan’s campaign for autonomy and reform captured urban hearts, but GRS outmaneuvered them in rural and semi-urban areas.
The GRS coalition—Perikatan Nasional (PN), Barisan Nasional (BN), and Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS)—played smart. By uniting their efforts, they avoided splitting votes, locking down key constituencies.
PN delivered 17 seats, BN 14, and PBS added 7. The numbers sealed their victory.
“GRS played the long game, uniting Perikatan Nasional, Barisan Nasional, and Parti Bersatu Sabah to avoid vote-splitting in rural strongholds.”
How GRS secured power
Once in office, GRS didn’t rest. It shored up its position by luring defectors.
Five Warisan assemblymen and five UMNO reps switched sides, boosting GRS’s majority.
In Sabah, loyalty often follows power. Coalitions, not party lines, hold sway in the state’s fluid political arena.
Alliances shifts
Today, the alliances that defined 2020 are unrecognizable.
GRS has broken away from BN and teamed up with Pakatan Harapan (PH), a partnership few could have predicted.
This new collaboration blends GRS’s rural strongholds with PH’s urban influence, creating a more balanced front.
For PH, it’s a pragmatic move—teaming up with the government rather than fighting it. For GRS, it’s a strategy to fend off threats in urban areas.
Meanwhile, UMNO has faded into the background, weakened by defections and sidelined in the new power structure.
A divided political front
While GRS and PH solidify their partnership, the opposition is in pieces.
Warisan, once the dominant force, now faces rivals on all sides.
Peter Anthony’s KDM is challenging Warisan and PBS for Kadazan-Dusun-Murut (KDM) support.
Larry Sng’s PBM is targeting urban voters, going after the same base as Warisan, DAP, and GRS.
Even smaller players like PCS, which captured 3.98% of the vote in 2020, could tip the scales in tight races.
And then there’s Bersatu—diminished but still a wildcard in key constituencies.
The risk of a hung assembly
Sabah’s fragmented political scene makes another hung assembly a real possibility.
The 2018 stalemate showed how messy these situations can get, with weeks of bargaining and defections delaying governance.
Warisan might win the popular vote again, but without rural backing or strong alliances, it risks being left out of government, as it was in 2020.
GRS, on the other hand, must hold its coalition with PH together while defending against rising challengers like KDM and PBM. – January 17, 2025
